Opinion: In Punjab, AAP and Congress can only win at each other’s expense (2024)

New Delhi,UPDATED: May 28, 2024 12:31 IST

Punjab goes to the polls in the last phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections on June 1. The state will see a four-cornered contest for the first time since 1989. The Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress, who are allies in neighbouring Delhi, are contesting separately here. The AAP, riding on its 2022 Vidhan Sabha performance, hopes to improve its tally in the Lok Sabha as it believes the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal has generated sympathy for the party.

The Congress needs to maintain its 2019 tally in the state to improve its prospects at the national level. The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiromani Akali Dal are also contesting separately as the Badals didn’t want to risk facing farmers’ ire by making a gharwapsi to the National Democratic Alliance. The saffron party is trying to diversify its vote base and shed its Hindu party image by inducting Sikh leaders.

AAP’s Punjab dream realised in 2022

The AAP made a scintillating debut in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, bagging 24 per cent of the votes and winning four seats largely at the expense of the SAD and the Congress. The BJP won two seats, the SAD won four and the Congress won three. In the 2019 general elections, the AAP’s vote share declined to seven per cent and the Congress emerged as the beneficiary of anti-Centre politics, bagging a 40 per cent vote share and eight seats. The AAP was reduced to just one seat. The BJP and the SAD won two seats each.

In the 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections, AAP swept the state, dethroning the Congress. The AAP recorded a 42 per cent vote share. The million-dollar question is whether it can hold onto its vote share in the national elections. The party is hopeful that there is sympathy for the AAP due to the imprisonment of Arvind Kejriwal and immense anger against the Narendra Modi-led BJP government in the state.

Congress-AAP main contenders in Punjab

The AAP defeated the Congress in the 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections. Right now, they are the main contenders in Punjab. The Congress and the AAP did not ally in Punjab. INDIA bloc strategists believe this would cede the Opposition space to the SAD and help their revival. Both parties of the INDIA bloc will be competing for all 13 seats. Local units are up in arms against each other, and this could create confusion amongst a section of voters.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a public rally in Punjab's Patiala on May 23, highlighting this contradiction. “In Punjab, Delhi's 'kattar' corrupt party and the party guilty of Sikh riots are pretending to contest against each other. But the truth is that while the 'Panja' and 'Jhaadu' are two parties, they are from the same shop.”

Kejriwal is yet to campaign extensively in the state, and it will be interesting to see how he approaches this. Attacking the BJP may not yield the desired results in the state as it is a marginal player in Punjab and that too on seats dominated by Hindus. If the AAP wants to gain seats, those have to come largely at the expense of the Congress party. On the other hand, if Congress needs to maintain its tally, it has to thwart threats from and prevent leakages to the AAP.

In the end, though, whichever party wins, the tally will remain within the INDIA bloc. However, whichever party gets more seats in Lok Sabha could gain momentum going into the Vidhan Sabha elections due in 2027. The national ambitions of both parties are clearly in contrast to the local dynamics and ambitions.

Punjab has long been a hub of anti-Centre politics. Regionalism is integral to Sikh culture where the BJP is seen as a national party. The Punjabis generally don’t want their fate to be remote-controlled by Delhi. Strong nationalism didn’t work here like in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when Punjab along with Kerala and Tamil Nadu were the major outliers of sorts. The AAP wants to tap this anti-Center sentiment and emerge as the top claimant of this section of voters, but it is more likely to accrue at the expense of its friend in Delhi and foe in Punjab, the Congress party.

BJP-SAD change strategy

The SAD is striving to regain its lost Sikh vote base following the 2015 sacrilege incident and has reaffirmed its dedication to the Panthic (Sikh religious) agenda. The BJP, on the other hand, has been on an induction spree, taking in Sikh leaders from both, the Congress party and the AAP, as well as the intelligentsia.

A quadrangular contest means a party could romp hope with a 30-35 per cent vote share as well. Which among the AAP and the Congress — both represent anti-BJP politics — will get more seats may depend on the quality and winnability of candidates.

Scenario analysis

Scenario analysis is difficult in Punjab as the base vote share from 2019 is no longer valid. The base has perhaps moved to 2022 or is somewhere between the 2019 and 2022 vote shares of parties. Also, this is not a qualitative analysis. Instead, it is based on swing in votes as you must have read in pieces in other states. A quadrangular contest further complicates matters.

There are two scenarios primarily:

• If the AAP holds on to its 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections vote share, and winners of all seats in 2019 also hold onto their vote shares, making it a contest between the 2019 victor and the AAP, then the latter could win up to six seats (+5), leaving the Congress with four (-4), the SAD with one (-1), and the BJP with two seats.
• If AAP’s vote share declines by 2.5 per cent compared to 2022, and winners of all seats in 2019 hold onto their vote shares, then the AAP could win up to five seats (+4), leaving the Congress with four (-4), the SAD with two, and the BJP with two seats.

To sum up, AAP’s gains are likely to come at the expense of the Congress in Punjab, further complicating the relationship between the two parties in the future.

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)

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